India is forecast to overtake Japan as the world’s 4th largest economy by 2025, according to India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog, Amitabh Kant.
As it stands, the size of India’s GDP is currently ranked in 5th place, following the US, China, Germany, and Japan. The country surpassed the UK back in 2022.
Only a decade ago, Indian GDP was the 11th largest globally, whereas now it is estimated to be around $3.7 trillion.
India's journey to becoming one of the top 5 economies in the world by 2024 from being part of the Fragile 5 in 2013 has been marked by several key highlights, according to Kant and others.
These include record GST collection, over 8% GDP growth in the past three quarters, trading in the Rupee with several countries (totalling 27) and maintaining inflation at manageable levels.
The term "Fragile 5" was coined in 2013 by a Morgan Stanley analyst to describe a group of five emerging economies, including India, that were facing economic challenges at the time. The other four countries were Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey.
Other factors contributing to India's strong growth include double-digit growth in the steel, cement, and automobile manufacturing sectors; becoming a global leader in digital public infrastructure, with e-transactions surging to 134 billion, accounting for 46% of all global digital payments; accounts opened under the Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, and Mobile trinity holding over Rs 2.32 lakh crore as a current balance; and average annual inflation between 2013-14 and 2022-23 declining to 5% from 8.2% between 2003-04 and 2013-14, The Economic Times reports.
Solid GDP growth forecasts, manageable inflation levels, political stability at the central government level, and effective central bank monetary policy have all played significant roles in painting a positive picture for the Indian economy in recent quarters.
Furthermore, during the October-December quarter of the 2023/24 financial year, India's GDP surged by 8.4%, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy. The country is expected to sustain this growth momentum in the coming years.
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