The monetary policy committee (MPC) at India’s central bank is holding an unscheduled meeting on Thursday to discuss missing the first inflation target.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aims to keep inflation two percentage points either side of 4% in the medium-term.

The central bank mandate means the RBI has to issue a report to the government should the inflation target not be reached for three straight quarters. The findings have to explain why the target wasn’t reached, the suggested course of action, and the proposed timeframe to return inflation back to within the target range, Reuters reports.

Thursday’s MPC meeting is taking place for the first time since 2016 – when the committee was established – as retail inflation fell outside the 2% - 6% range for three consecutive quarters.

Since January, retail inflation has stayed over 6%, and rose to a five-month high of 7.41% in September.

Radhika Rao, a DBS Bank economist, said the RBI would likely blame “exogenous supply-side pressures” such as the war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the pandemic, for missing the inflation target.

Traders don’t forecast any rate action will be taken at the upcoming meeting, but the central bank could increase rates following a likely 75-basis point rise by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

“The unscheduled meeting on 3 November 2022 recently announced is only a part of the regulatory obligation,” Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic adviser at the State Bank of India stated.

“We do not believe any other agenda to be announced at this meeting, against the market expectation of a slim chance of rate hike.”