India’s economy is forecast to have grown at a record pace in Q2, although analysts say this doesn’t represent the full picture of the growth trajectory.

Over 40 economists surveyed by Reuters earlier this month forecast that GDP rose 20% on-year between April and June, the country’s first fiscal quarter.

“The headline GDP growth number for April-June quarter ... will flatter to deceive,” according to Shuchita Shukla, a research analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

If the 20% figure is attained, this would be the fastest pace of growth in India since quarterly GDP was first measured in 1996. Nevertheless, the data follows India’s sharp contraction compared to the previous year, when the majority of the country was in lockdown. The economy contracted 24.4% over those three months, CNBC reports.

Shukla added that the Economist Intelligence Unit’s year-on-year growth forecast exceeds 25%: “More revealing will be the quarter-on-quarter rate, which we expect to show that India’s economy contracted by 7% amid a devastating second wave of Covid-19.”

Between January and March, India’s economy expanded 1.6% compared to the year before.

As India battled with the second wave of Covid cases between February and early May, the country avoided another national lockdown: “Humanitarian costs of the health crisis were immense, but the economic impact was less severe than the first wave and activity rebounded faster,” stated Radhika Rao, a senior economist at Singapore’s DBS Group.

Although India is opening up more prudently after the second wave of the virus, there is still a risk of a third wave. Yet the effect on the economy is not predicted to be as severe as the first and second waves.

Shukla went on to say that monthly data reveals India’s economy will likely return to decent quarterly growth between July and September.